DFL would need to pick up key suburban seats to take back legislature
Republicans confident they will maintain majority
BY T.W. BUDIG
Democratic leaders look to the suburbs for critical seats they need to take back the Republican legislature.
Currently, Republicans control the Senate by holding 37 seats against the Democrats’ 29.
One seat is vacant — former Sen. John Harrington, DFL-St. Paul, resigning to assume law enforcement duties with the Met Council — but it’s a safe seat for Democrats.
Democrats need an additional four Democratic senators to recapture the Senate.
Sen. Chris Gerlach, R-Apple Valley, who served in the House and since 2004 in the Senate, decided not to seek reelection.
Gerlach took heat last legislative session over his bulk mail company taking money from supporters of the so-called “right to work” constitutional amendment, something Gerlach, as a lawmaker, supported.
Republicans wrested control of the Senate from Democrats two years ago, breaking a Democratic lock going back almost 40 years.
Now Democrats want the Senate back.
“I feel pretty good about it — yeah,” Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk, DFL-Cook, said of winning back the Senate.
Though speaking of the economy and education as key issues, voters “can feel” an aura of mismanagement radiating from the Republican Senate Caucus, Bakk argued.
He spoke of a “cascade of missteps,” pointing to a recent administrative law judge panel finding that 11 Republican senators and former House Speaker Steve Sviggum broke state campaign law by distributing taxpayer-paid literature containing a political fundraising link.
The senators and Sviggum, who has insisted he’s the one to blame, were given small fines.
The public may not know or understand the details about the ruling or the extra-marital affair with a Senate staffer that drove Sen. Amy Koch, R-Buffalo, to resign as Senate Majority Leader, but they sense things have gone awry, Bakk argued.
“I am confident we’re going to pick up seats in the suburbs,” said House Minority Leader Paul Thissen, DFL-Minneapolis.
House Republicans currently hold 72 seats, House Democrats 61 seats, with one open seat.
Democrats would need to win six seats to regain control.
But Thissen argues that looking at the current head count is misleading.
With lawmaker retirements and redistricting both House caucuses are essentially starting in the mid-50s and the battle is really over the remaining 24 seats, he explained.
Fifteen seats are open.
Thissen is “cautiously optimistic” House Democrats will regain control. He points to House races in Dakota County as “ground zero” in the suburban political fray, adding that House Democrats look for success in Edina and in Eden Prairie, too.
This election will not be a “wave” style election as seen in 2006, 2008, 2010, Thissen argues.
Still, Thissen views the proposed same-sex marriage ban constitutional amendment as one factor that could bring young voters to the polls.
And if younger voters turn out, that could help Democrats, he said.
Moreover, a youth surge could play a strong role in suburban House races where Republican lawmakers, in supporting the marriage amendment, voted against the grain of the district, he argued.
Not that Thissen believes the defeat of the amendment is assured.
It will be very close, he said.
DFL State Party Chairman Ken Martin is upbeat about a Democratic legislative revival and looks to the suburbs for help in bridging the gap.
“We have a number of legislative targets in the suburbs,” Martin said.
Martin cites Senate District 49 in Edina as a district in which Democrats can win all three seats.
Indeed, if he had to bet on a race, he’d bet on former Republican Rep. Ron Erhardt of Edina, now running as a Democrat, to win House District 49A.
“Yes, I am that certain about that race,” Martin said.
Martin points to the race in Senate District 53 — a district in Woodbury and Maplewood — where Democrat Susan Kent is challenging incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Lillie as another race Democrats can win.
For his part, Bakk looks to DFL Senate candidate Greg Clausen in Senate District 57 in Dakota County as a possible Senate Democratic win.
“We have an awfully good candidate down there,” he said.
“Bellwether” races are found in Dakota County, Martin explained, with former DFL state senator Jim Carlson, state representatives Sandra Masin and Will Morgan, all seeking to regain seats lost last election.
“I think we have a good chance at all three,” Martin said.
Martin views the proposed amendments on the ballot, Photo ID and the marriage ban, less about bringing out more voters than fired-up voters more likely to vote Democratic down the ticket.
Republicans see things differently.
Senate Majority Leader David Senjem, R-Rochester, indicated Senate Republicans are holding strong.
“We’re getting frankly very good vibes (from voters),” he said.
Senjem expressed confidence Senate Republicans would not only keep the majority but even pick up seats.
“I don’t know who we’re going to lose,” Senjem said of the current roster of Senate Republicans.
“I’m confident we’ll be okay,” he said.
Polling has shown that jobs and the economy are the leading concerns of voters, Senjem explained.
Voters are uneasy, he said.
But the state economy is improving, and Senate Republicans are going to take some credit for the improvements seen and those yet to come, he explained.
Senjem views the presidential race as “absolutely” affecting legislative races.
It’s critical that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney articulate his plans for improving the nation’s economy, Senjem explained.
Senjem deemed the proposed amendments as having limited impact on the election.
“I think we would have sensed something by now,” he said.
As for the Koch scandal, Senate Republican candidates say they’re not hearing about at the front door, Senjem said.
House Speaker Kurt Zellers, R-Maple Grove, said it’s too early to have a strong sense of how House Republicans will fare this election.
Things should be okay.
“I feel confident we will hold the majority at the current number of seats,” Zellers said.
Indeed, there’s a “good chance” of House Republicans picking up seats, he explained.
He pointed to Champlin Mayor and retired business executive Mark Uglem in House District 36A as a potential pick up — Rep. Denise Dittrich, DFL-Champlin, did not seek reelection.
House Republican candidates include an impressive group of women candidates, Zellers said. In terms of holding districts, Zellers pointed to Republican candidate Bill Glahn in District 49A, running against Erhardt.
“Bill is absolutely a rock star when it comes to door knocking,” Zellers said.
Contrary to what Democrats may say, voters are most concerned about jobs and the economy, he said.
“There’s nothing else that touches it,” Zellers said.
The No. 2 issue for voters is one state lawmakers have no control over, he explained.
That’s the national debt, he said.
Like Bakk, Senjem, and Thissen, Zellers does not expect a “wave” style election in November.
“It will be a one-on-one candidate year,” he said.
Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman Pat Shortridge did not respond to an interview request.
T.W. Budig is the Capitol reporter for ECM Publishers.